Digital to Replace Film by 2008

Mark Goldstein | General | June 26, 2003 | 5 Comments |

A report by the InfoTrends Research Group predicts that digital camera sales will completely replace sales of film cameras in North America by the year 2008. Digital camera unit sales are forecast to reach 14.3 million units in 2003. The report also rather conservatively comments “Additionally, within the five-year forecast, digital camera vendors are expected to deliver sub-$1,000 amateur digital SLRs that support interchangeable lenses, which will also cut into film camera sales.” I would have thought and hoped that a sub-$1,000 amateur digital SLR would be released well before 2008…

Website: InfoTrends

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#1 Collin

Are they going to release a Digital Back for my ETRS that doesn't cost 11 grand before 2008 then???

5:41 pm - Thursday, June 26, 2003

#2 noah

As Mark described in his previous article, there's a heck of a lot to like about digital photography; there's no doubt that for the vast majority of photographic uses digital will be easier, faster, and cheaper for most everyone.

It's a shame though -- there are few more incredible, mysterious moments for a young kid than watching an image miraculously appear on a blank piece of paper in a tray of developer. Watching that object change right before my eyes hooked me, and I'm glad I had that experience in junior high.

I hope that kids getting into photography these days can find some similar kind of magic in the digital process, but something (my advanced age, perhaps -- 28!) makes me doubt it. Here's to hoping.

12:33 am - Friday, June 27, 2003

#3 William C Bert

Noah
You know how I still get that feeling? I find it now from the printed photo. Viewing a photo on a monitor is not the same emotions one feels when one prints it and holds "their" photo in their hands.

Bill

11:29 am - Friday, June 27, 2003

#4 Mark Goldstein

I'm 28 too, but unlike Noah I didn't experience the magic of the darkroom until late last year (when I was still 28).

It was definitely a great experience to see the image develop in the dark-room for the first time, but I'm afraid the digital dark-side had already claimed me as its own before then. A few weeks later and I was cursing the fact that you have to start from scratch if even the smallest thing goes wrong - whatever happened to multiple undo and the History tab?

Mark

3:10 pm - Friday, June 27, 2003

#5 noah

But Mark, that's part of the education! It teaches you humility (and how to curse like a sailor).

It's true, I have pretty much forgotten (blocked out, more likely) the myriad pains in the ass of working in the darkroom. Certain things (any serious color work, fancy multiple image composites, etc) were totally inaccessible to me but are trivially easy to do in Photoshop. And that Undo button is a life saver!

Regarding education, it's also clear that the economics are overwhelmingly on digital's side. Any loss in the tactile, object-based sense of photography is offset by the fact that you can buy a lot of photoshop (educational) licenses for the cost of a single darkroom. And most schools are or will be loaded with computers already...

I just worry (irrationally) about situation at some point in the future where the teacher says "okay, kids, English class is over and now it's time for Art! Please close Word and open Photoshop..."

9:23 pm - Friday, June 27, 2003