Panasonic Lumix DMC-3D1
Canon IXUS 240 HS
Canon PowerShot SX240 HS
Nikon D800
Samsung DV300F
Nikon Coolpix P510
Canon PowerShot SX260 HS
Panasonic Lumix DMC-TZ30
Nikon Coolpix S9300
Olympus OM-D E-M5
What Will Happen in 2004?
Photographer Thom Hogan has written one of the most interesting articles that I’ve read all year, and who knows, some of it may well turn out to be true. “What Will Happen in 2004?” is Thom’s personal predictions of what will happen in the photography world next year. Amongst other things, he predicts that there will be 9 new DSLRs released:
“The third new Nikon DSLR will shake up the industry. Last year I predicted the appearance of parts of the F6 (the autofocus system ended up in the D2h). Well, this year I’m going further, saying it will appear fully. Essentially, the F6 will be like a medium format camera in 35mm size. The main component will simply be a light-proof box with lens mount, shutter, and mirror mechanism. Perhaps that part will also have a power supply in it. But everything else (and perhaps the power supply) will be modular. You’ll have your choice of bolt-on film or digital backs and your choice of viewfinders. Backs and viewfinders can be interchanged mid-roll/mid-card. I’ll go further and point out that Nikon will use the Olympics in Greece to launch this hybrid.”
Website: Thom Hogan - What Will Happen in 2004?
Panasonic Lumix DMC-3D1 Review
Canon IXUS 240 HS Review
Canon PowerShot SX240 HS Review
Nikon D800 Review
Samsung DV300F Review
Nikon Coolpix P510
Panasonic Lumix DMC-TZ30
Canon PowerShot SX260 HS
Fujifilm X-Pro1
Sony Cyber-shot DSC-HX200V
#1 SeanB
Some interesting predictions, mostly I would agree with them. A continued decline in film sales, continued rise in digital camera sales, and continued price reductions for digital cameras at all performance levels. Not sure that the phone camera is quite ready to replace most peoples compact yet though.
The Nikon F6 is interesting if true. Would this take standard Nikon lenses or will it be some new format? Is this because Nikon can't make high density sensors so having interchangeable backs lets someone else do it? A rival to the Hasselblad H1 system maybe?
As for Canon, I expect to see their 6 MegaPixel CMOS sensor move down the range over the next 12 months. A G6 first, then maybe an A100, and then the Ixus 600! Canon will want to recoup their investment and they seem to be able to make this sensor in volume now.
So the 300D will fall in price, maybe £500 body only by the end of 2004. The 10D will either get a minor revamp, and price reduction to £999 or less, or Canon will launch a new DSLR which I guess will have something around a 8 MegaPixel sensor. i.e. move the density of the 10D sensor onto the size of the 1D sensor (which is larger). The 10D sensor is almost 2 years old, having been inherited from the D60, which is old in DSLR terms! So something new is probably in the R&D wings.
What I would really like, and would surprise me, is for the full frame 11 MegaPixel sensor to arrive in a cheaper DSLR. Or the 1Ds to drop in price to something less frightening to the bank manager. The 1Ds sensor is clearly better than 35mm, and approaches Medium Format in quality, even for large prints. When this arrives in a sub £2000 body, film is well and truly doomed.
Sean
8:43 pm - Friday, December 5, 2003
#2 John
That Nikon F6 prediction... holy sh*t that would be industry-rocking at the very least. With my continuing ire for Canon, I truly hope Nikon has something like this in the works. From my viewpoint behind a camera shop sales counter, Nikon really needs something BIG to get back into the spotlight.
I think Pentax has a fighting chance in the future if they keep coming up with innovative designs like the Optio 555, S4, and 33WR. I've found Pentax cameras some of the easiest to sell (at least, to customers who aren't dead-set on Canon) due to their uniqueness.
The future of Konica Minolta is a little uncertain from my point of view. First, I think they're going to have to drop either "Konica" or "Minolta" and bring everything together under one brand name. My vote is for "Minonica," but somehow I don't think that'll fly. As for their cameras, they've come up with an impressive lineup for this year's holiday season, and I think this will continue in the year to come. They MUST reduce their film camera volume and come out with a DSLR (which is in development, according to my Minolta rep) if they want to significantly move up in digital market share, though.
Medium Format will be nearly dead in three years. Very sad, but true. At best, I think a couple brands will be left making new MF product, and even then at relatively low volumes. The format is just too expensive and bulky compared to 35mm-style DSLRs, and not enough people are getting into it.
Super high-end companies, like Leica, aren't going to disappear, but they will have to start watering down their image a bit with slightly-less-than-high-end cameras. I think they need to attract a completely new audience to survive. Their old fans are dying off, and their products are too expensive for the vast majority of new consumers out there. Oh, and they'll have to produce GOOD products. No more D-LUXes, please. 3 megapixels for $800? No, thanks.
If 2003 was any indicator of things to come, 2004 will be an interesting year, at the very least.
4:46 am - Saturday, December 6, 2003
#3 Mark Goldstein
What I'd really like is an A3 version of the Epson R800 printer that's due out in Feb 2004 - at the moment I'm testing the 2100 and it's great, but I'd love to do glossy prints as well.
7:17 pm - Sunday, December 7, 2003
#4 Robert Walker
I would not be surprised if sooner than later Nikon will produce a digital back say for the F5 F100 and maybe the Fm2N who knows! I would not through away my Nikon F100 at a cheap price because of the digital frenzy going on at this moment in time no way! now I am not against digital I have one and it is the Nikon 5700 and it is a very good little camera and is so easy to carry around in the car or on ones person and gets those shots that one might otherwise miss.
8:54 pm - Sunday, August 22, 2004